Thursday 18 July 2013

The Business of Movies - Why " Box Office" gross is Over rated?

As a species, we are obsessed with numbers. The more staggering the numbers, the more we like them, which results in more conversations built around them.

Be it Sports, entertainment, politics , economics or any other walk of life, there is a tendency to zero in on a single statistic ( or a handful) as a representative barometer of success or failure. Let me elaborate via examples.

In Test Cricket, a batsman is judged to be good if he has a good average ( and centuries) . In T20 cricket, a batsman is usually judged to be good if he has a higher strike rate ( or more sixes) . Our economy is said to be doing good, if the GDP growth rate is high. And in a similar manner, a hindi movie is judged commercially successful if it hits the “100 crore” mark.

All the above instances suffer from the same fallacy, that of missing the “ bigger picture”.  A Test batsman is more than just his average suggests, a T20 batsman is more than what his strike rate tells us. It is very important to also judge a batsman on the context of how he made his runs, where he made them and under what situation.

By the same logic, there is lot more to the success of a hindi movie than a “ 100 crore” gross at the box office. Not all movies that hit the 100 Cr. mark are successful, and neither are all those which fail unsuccessful. Unfortunately, most of us are attuned to concentrating on the box office gross to determine success, and the media has played a significant role in creating and reinforcing the importance of the box office gross. I’ll be examining various other facets and statistics which play a critical role, as important as the box office gross and sometimes, even more important.

  • Television Broadcast Rights : Increasingly, more and more movies get their TV rights sold before the theatrical release. With the proliferation of a number of GECs ( General Entertainment Channels), producers are being paid humungous amounts for exclusive satellite rights of their movies. According to an Economic Times article[1], Multi Screen Media ( which owns Sony and its sister channels) spent close to 21 Crores to acquire the satellite rights of 3 Idiots . To put that in perspective, 3 Idiots was approximately made on a budget of 45 cr, which means the movie got back around 46% of its budget even before it was released in a single theatre. This stands true in Hollywood too - the average gross from television rights comes to around 8-10% of the movie’s total gross, which is quite a significant portion.

  • Audio Rights :With the increasing availability of audio files on a myriad number of websites and also on YouTube, one w ould imagine that Audio rights would hardly determine a movie’s commercial success. However, there are several instances where Audio rights have made a sizeable contribution to a movie’s revenues. The disastrous superhero movie Ra-One from SRK, earned close to 15 crores just from selling its audio rights. This translates to roughly 11% of the movie’s total budget of 132 Crores[2], which is not bad at all!

  • BluRay, DVD and Video Sales – Yes, Loads of people still buy original content despite how piracy has grown. The Hollywood industry has adapted these media in such a way that buying content gives them a better experience of the movie than just watching it, with inclusion of extras, interviews, uncut scenes and what not. Also, there sufficient evidence to prove that a movie can still go on and become successful through video sales, even after its theatrical run is over. The best example for this would be “ The Shawshank Redemption” which was a box office disaster when it released , but went on to attain massive recognition later on, resulting in unprecedented sales creating records in USA and most of Europe. The popularity of the movie has only grown over the years, and Warner Bros. still make a substantial amount of money through it. The movie in fact, is considered as the biggest “home – viewing” hit ever in the US. Closer home, in India, Andaz Apna Apna replicated something similar, failing at the box office, but achieving a cult status over the years, which ensures revenues for the makers of the movie in various forms.

  • Merchandising – Merchandising has not been a big thing in Indian cinema and has had limited appeal. This is changing, albeit pretty slowly. Both Ra-One and Krrish, were movies which made substantial investments and are said to have reaped revenues worth few crores from merchandise sales. In Hollywood, Merchandising is huge, no, make that HUGE. There have also been rare occasions where movie production houses make sequels and elongate franchises,  with the primary aim to keep the merchandise business thriving. Pixar’s "Cars” was perhaps the least liked movie among all their productions, but still Pixar chose to go ahead and make “ Cars 2” ( which was also not very well received by fans) . The reason – “Cars” is perhaps the highest merchandising earning single film of all time, the movie led to merchandise sales close $10 Billion ( yes, that’s BILLION)[3] from 2006-2012. Even with a modest 10% royalty – it translates to almost a Billion dollars in revenue, which is more than twice the movie’s box office gross of $463 Million. This also explains the high number of different car types we see in the sequel compared to its first outing. One can only imagine how much merchandising gross was earned from movie franchises like The Star Wars, Harry Potter Series, Toy Story, Shrek and the likes. Animated and Fantasy movies in particular are heavily exploited as a commercial property and turned into merchandise magnets , netting in lots of dollars for the studios.

  •  Distributor Gross – Distributor earnings show something of a huge variation depending on the movie. A movie from a leading star like a Salman , SRK etc. would get the producer a better share of the ticket earnings ( 60:40 would be a ballpark figure, with 40 for the distributor). This is one fact which is always hidden when we read box office figures of 100 crores and 150 crores being touted. As a thumb rule, the producer earns back only 50% of the ticket sales which is why a movie made on a budget of 70 crores wouldn’t be an “ actual hit” if it earned 100 crores at the box office.


The ones mentioned above are only a handful of ancillary revenue streams for movies and there are new ones being used all the time. Some more sources of revenue which are increasingly gaining acceptance are Product Placement, Video Game Tie Ups, Comics, Books, YouTube, special edition consumer hardware and what not.

So, the next time you hear a Rohit Shetty movie making “100 crore” , keep your eyes open. There’s lot more to the business of movies than just the box office gross.

Sunday 10 March 2013

A View on Indian Sports through the Lens of Business


I always turn to the sports pages first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page usually records nothing, but man's failures.

Earl Warren


The above quote quite succinctly sums up what is perhaps the biggest draw that the Sports Industry has. We, as humans revel in the achievements of our teams, sports personalities and also sporting events. The high is probably matched only by achieving such successes ourselves. Sports and games have been around for ages and they will continue to do so because of the very same reason.

Estimating the size of the Sports Industry is a very complicated task. There are too many revenue channels like broadcast, merchandise, attendance fees, advertisements, sports management agencies and a host of others. A report by Plunkett research puts the estimate of the Sports Industry in USA at a whopping $435 Billion.To put this in perspective, the automotive manufacturing in USA is valued at $203 Billion, the entire movie & entertainment industry is a paltry $29.6 Billion. Even in India, where sports is still a fledgling industry (other than cricket) the opportunities are estimated at $20 Billion dollars because of the tremendous infrastructure spending which is required.

Comparative Chart
Industry
Estimated Size ( Revenue is Bn USD )
Sports Industry ( USA)
435
Media & Entertainment Industry ( USA)
45
Media & Entertainment Industry ( India )
17.3
Automobile Industry ( USA)
203
Automobile Industry (India)
71
Sports ( India)
6.1 ( Estimated)

The chart quite clearly illustrates the mismatch of the Indian sporting industry’s size compared to the USA. Apart from the Indian Premier League and premier cricketing properties like the World Cup most of the sporting events are adequately monetised. The inadequate commercialisation could be pointed out as being one of the reasons for India’s below par, and sometimes downright ridiculous results in many sports.

A Vicious Cycle


The sporting industry is in quite a peculiar situation due to the lack of wealth creation in Indian sports.  The fact that there isn’t enough money in sports, has for the most part kept out the private sector. This has led to a situation where most of the sports bodies/ teams and myriad associations right from Hockey, Wrestling, Cricket, Football are managed and governed by either ex- sporting personalities or politicos who are honorary presidents of such bodies. To a large extent, an ex-sporting personality fails to have a commercial and business mindset and has more of a sporting mindset. This is good for the sport as an administrator, but bad for the profits. We need more businessmen in the Sports Industry so that the bodies are woken out of slumber and are made to unlock the immense potential within them.

A direct example would be the IPL and how it has been commercialised. The IPL was conceptualised by Lalit Modi – who is a businessman ( KK Modi Group , Godfrey Philips India) through and through. Chirayu Amin, the current commissioner of the IPL is again a business man ( CMD of Alembic Ltd. , a 104 year old Pharma company, more popularly known as the makers of Glycodin ) . All the teams in the IPL are owned by Corporate giants and managed by men who run it like a business and not just Sports.

The result of treating Sports as a business as in the case of IPL has been quite evident. It is currently the most watched event on Indian television spanning a massive 45 days plus. The IPL brand and some of the team brands are among the world’s valued brands in sports today, commanding valuations equivalent to NBA teams and some of the EPL teams which have been around for decades. It has also strengthened the BCCI’s coffers by humongous amounts (it remains to be seen how it is put to use though) and helped the game uncover talents from hitherto unknown locations in India. Cricket viewership had taken a strong beating in the early part of the 2000s in India owing to a waning interest in ODIs , the IPL not only reversed this trend but got a lot more viewership from some sections of the audience which had otherwise given up watching cricket. IPL has also generated a significant amount of employment directly and in terms of spill off  - domestic players earn more money, all the franchises hire an extensive support staff and the indirect opportunities for people involved in merchandise, stadium management, sponsorships management and what not.

The IPL has also had its fair share of controversies and allegations right from the teams to the players. It has also given rise to this new term ‘cricket purists’ – vaguely defined as people who enjoy test cricket only. I find the term quite wrong in the sense that the purists view test cricket as being superior to ODI or T20 cricket.  The different formats are for different audience . For eg. I would choose watching a good day of Test cricket over the IPL or T20 cricket any day, but my mom , for instance, would have much more fun watching the IPL . That is a preference of the audience and I don’t think that makes any one form superior over the others.

What does Indian Sports need?


I’ve already emphasised the need for business managers to manage Sporting Bodies in India. Sports has to be looked at as a full time job for those managing it, and not as a honorary post. We need a lot of professionals to manage sport.  The administration has been too lax and had a huge negative impact on a lot of sports – cases in point being the suspension of the Indian Olympics Association, the fracas in 2008 at the Hockey associations.

Another approach to ensure better management and create monies in Sports would be to give it an industry status. This will enable a systematic entry of private players into Indian Sports and also help them with their funding requirements, overseas borrowing and tax benefits. The FICCI is already lobbying with the Government to this effect.

Creation of more marketable properties akin to the IPL  and the Hockey India League. Sports needs to be marketed very well – which might happen if the private sector plays an active part in creating properties. Two recent examples are the Hockey India League and the Toyota University Cricket Championship (TUCC) . The Hockey India League has created a lot of visibility for hockey and met with an enthusiastic response from international bodies as well the fans. The TUCC conceptualised and co created by NDTV and Toyota along with their partners provides a great platform for budding cricket talent which earlier went unnoticed. It has also garnered a decent enough viewership backed by the marketing might of its Sponsors and the Brand Ambassador SRK. There is a lot of potential in India for such platforms in other sports too.

Seeing Sports through a business lens should hopefully ensure that there is a trickle down into development of sports academies at the grass root levels. This will happen gradually and over time. In the USA, there have been instances where in some of the states College Basketball  (NCAA) has garnered higher viewership than the NBA.  Instances like these are surely possible in India too, and have already happened in the IPL, where IPL has beaten TV ratings of International matches.

The business of Sports can surely prove to be a powerful industry for India’s future economy, because Sports captures one’s hopes – hopes of seeing the impossible happen and hope is a very powerful thing.